Raikkonen?!?! Are you kidding me. I'm a great Mclaren/Kimi fan but i'm definitely not optimistic of his chances at all. He's 4th place and this track is notorious for not being an overtaking track. Coz you have a joker like Trulli in front who seem to qualify low on fuel just for track position and slow down the rest thruout the first set of pitstop. As you can see this year, its getting more difficult to overtake even though the car is significantly slower than you.
I'd rather go for a Montoya victory. Michael is a bit of a 50-50 coz he was blindingly fast in qualifying en route to taking pole but i'm not sure of his race pace coz he faded badly after the pitstop in Germany. But never underestimate the German Master coz he always seem to be able to pull a trick off his sleeve to surprise everyone. But if Montoya gets the jump over Michael after the first corner, then it'll be difficult for Ferrari.